AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Futures Range Bound Ahead of Export Sales

Corn futures are trading steady to a penny higher this morning. They were down 1/2 to 1 cent per bushel on Wednesday. The weekly EIA report showed ethanol stocks dropped 517,000 barrels last week to 22.676 million barrels, the lowest inventory since September. Monthly trade data from Census shows corn exports during February down 4.03% from last year at 3.617 MMT. Feb DDG exports totaled 686,005 MT, which was a 5-year low on lower production. Ethanol shipments were reported at 113.82 million gallons. Trade ideas for this morning’s USDA weekly Export Sales report are running 500-850,000 MT for old crop and 0 to 100,000 MT for new crop. The market will be closed on Good Friday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market Up 1 to 2 Ahead of Export Sales

Soybean futures are 1 to 1 3/4 cents higher ahead of the release of the weekly Export Sales report. They were down 7 3/4 to 9 1/4 on Wednesday. Meal futures were down $2.60/ton and May soy oil was 261 points lower. This morning’s USDA Export Sales report is expected to show 350,000-800,000 MT in old crop soybean bookings for the week of 4/11, with new crop at 0-60,000 MT. Meal sales are seen at 125,000-325,000 MT, with soy oil at 8,000-30,000 MT. US Soybean exports in February were the 5th largest monthly total on record, 4.577 MMT. That was up 8.65% yr/yr, but down 5.2% from January. Shipments to China were slightly larger than in 2018. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Bulls Still Struggling for Traction

Wheat futures are trading mostly 3 to 4 cents lower in the CHI and KC contracts this morning. They were UNCH to 3 3/4 cents higher in the winter wheat contracts on Wednesday. Spring wheat is trading 1 1/4 lower to 2 1/4 higher. MPLS was also higher by 1/4 to 1 3/4 cents on Wednesday. Census trade data, released on Wednesday morning, showed the largest wheat exports for February since 2012/13 at 2.262 MMT. That was a 61.97% jump from 2018 and 12.95% larger than January. The range of estimates for old crop wheat export sales in the week of April 11 is 200,000-400,000 MT. Analysts also see 150,000-300,000 MT for new crop bookings. --Provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Looking Ahead to COF Report

Live cattle futures settled 22 cents lower to $0.67 higher Wednesday, with front month April down 22 cents. Feeder cattle futures were down 60 to up 92 cents, with deferred contracts higher. The CME feeder cattle index was up 12 cents on April 16 at $143.58. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed. Choice boxes were up 71 cents at $232.76, with Select boxes $.99 lower at $220.16. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 363,000 head. That would be 3,000 larger than last week and 7,000 head above the same week a year ago. A total of 1,269 head of the 1,578 head offered on Wednesday’s FCE auction were sold at an average price of $127.08. Negotiated sales of $126 were reported in TX and KS, with a few $127 bids showing up in NE outside of the FCE. Traders expect the USDA Cattle on Feed report to show March placements were about 3% larger than year ago, with April 1 On Feed at 101.7% of 2018 ---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Market Anticipating Weekly Pork Sales Data

Lean Hog futures closed $1.00 lower to $1.20 higher on Wednesday, with nearby June down a buck, but December and later contracts posting triple digit gains. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 27 cents from the previous day @ $79.84 on April 15. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 47 cents higher at $87.00 in the PM report. The national base hog carcass value was down 20 cents at an average weighted price of $77.18. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 1.381 million head through Wednesday, down 45,000 from the previous week and 3,000 below last year. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Backs Off Overnight on Firm Dollar

Cotton futures are trading 19 to 50 points lower this morning on a little pre-holiday profit taking. They settled 17 to 40 points higher on Wednesday. The markets will be closed on Friday. The US dollar is stronger this morning. Cotton exports in February were tallied at 1.484 million bales according to newly released Census data. That was 21.55% larger than January, which is a typical seasonal rise, but 25.09% lower than Feb 2018. The Cotlook A Index was down 145 points at 86.25 on April 16. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is 69.21, 99 points higher than the previous week and effective through Thursday for USDA program purposes. The 18/19 Brazilian cotton crop is expected to be the largest since 14/15 according to Celeres, at 2.5 MMT. USDA ag attach reports suggest that Chinese cotton imports will rise 200,000 MT to 2.0 MMT in 2019/20 and that Egyptian imports will rise 2% for the same year due to sharply reduced 2019 plantings. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353